The Texas housing market is at a critical crossroads. Skyrocketing home prices, driven in part by limited inventory and restrictive local zoning laws, have made homeownership increasingly unattainable, especially for first-time buyers. But change is on the horizon.

Senate Bill 15 (SB15), recently passed by the Texas House, proposes a significant shift: reducing the minimum lot size for new single-family homes in the state’s largest cities. While the original proposal would have allowed homes on lots as small as 1,400 sq ft, amendments now set the minimum at 3,000 sq ft, still a meaningful reduction from the 5,000 to 7,500 sq ft minimums common today.

What SB15 Means:

• Creates a minimum lot size threshold for city platting criteria for single family lots on tracts of five acres or more.
• Applies to cities with populations >150,000 located in counties with populations >300,000.
• Exempts certain areas near police training facilities or military bases.
• Currently applies to Mesquite, Pasadena, Killeen, Brownsville, McKinney, Grand Prairie, Frisco, Garland, Irving, Lubbock, Plano, Corpus Christi, Arlington, El Paso, Ft. Worth, Austin, Dallas, San Antonio, Houston.
• City may not adopt criteria that requires a residential lot to be larger than 3,000 SF, wider than 30 feet, or deeper than 75 feet.
• Prohibits city criteria that require small lots (4,000 SF) to have: setbacks greater than 15 ft (front), 10 ft. (back), and 5 ft. (side), covered parking, more than one parking space per unit, off-site parking, more than 30% open space or permeable surface, fewer than three stories, maximum building bulk, or wall articulation requirements.
• Explicit authority to require shared driveways, single-family residential permit fees, and impact fees for small lots.
• Creates cause of action for person or housing organization to challenge city for failure to adhere to these requirements.
• Effective September 1, 2025. 

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Why This Matters for First-Time Buyers
Data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows that first-time homebuyers made up the smallest share of the market in recent history. And according to the Texas A&M Real Estate Research Center, the percentage of homes sold in Texas for $200,000 or less has drastically declined, from over 35% in 2014 to just under 7% in 2024.

CDS Community Development Strategies has seen this trend firsthand through our ResIntel housing studies across Texas. Local governments are struggling to meet demand for affordable housing. When smaller homes can’t be built, entry-level options simply vanish.

​Let’s be clear: Without new, smaller, more affordable homes, first-time homebuyers will continue to be locked out of the American Dream.

​Allowing for small home construction means supporting future generations of homeowners, increasing housing supply, and preventing the middle-class migration crisis seen in other states.

How ResIntel by CDS Can Help
At CDS, we work closely with cities, chambers, and economic development agencies across Texas to analyze local housing needs through our ResIntel studies.

Our work combines quantitative data with qualitative on the ground field research that helps communities identify where gaps exist—especially for entry-level housing—and plan for sustainable growth.

If your city is navigating affordability challenges or preparing for zoning changes like those proposed in SB15, ResIntel can help you make confident, informed decisions.

As we move through 2025, CDS – the leader in housing market studies - is here to provide the insights you need.

Let’s connect to discuss what these trends mean for you!
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Mike Prats
mprats@cdsmr.com | 281-582-0924
Ty Jacobsen
tjacobsen@cdsmr.com | 281-582-0864
Steve Spillette
sspillette@cdsmr.com | 281-582-0847

The CDS family is heartbroken that our dear colleague, mentor, and friend Kent Dussair passed away on June 26, after a mercifully brief case of aggressive pulmonary fibrosis.
 
Kent co-founded CDS in 1971 and led the company for over 40 years. He oversaw its emergence as a vital and innovative market research and analysis company for the Houston residential and commercial real estate industry, navigating the economic waves of boom and bust with which longtime Houstonians are so familiar. It says so much about his leadership that CDS survived the crushing economic and real estate downturn of the mid to late 1980s and has kept going to the present day. His stories of Houston’s past business eras were always so fascinating.
 
However, it’s not just the “headline” aspects of Kent’s work that mean the most to me personally and to my CDS colleagues. It was the fantastic example he set with the way he treated our clients, our staff, and fellow Houstonians that I will remember so much. I’ve yet to meet anyone who knew him who has a bad word to say about him – he was the definition of a “great guy.” We’re also big fans of his wife Linda and the rest of his family that they raised so well.
 
Kent embodied the “soul” of CDS and his passing just re-emphasizes how big the shoes are that I and my CDS colleagues continue to try to fill. CDS staff sends our heartfelt condolences to the Dussair family. They can rest assured we will make sure his CDS legacy continues to shine.
 
https://www.dignitymemorial.com/obituaries/katy-tx/robert-dussair-10249146
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CDS recently completed a ResIntel study for the City of San Angelo, Texas.  City officials are responding – see this local news media item.

​In August of 2017 Hurricane Harvey devastated the Houston area with its overwhelming rains. Many are asking what Harvey will mean for Houston’s economy and real estate markets over the long term. CDS has had and will continue to have opportunities to consider these questions in our work. First though, we want to revisit the storm and share our team's stories from Harvey’s onslaught and aftermath.

Steve Spillette

I was at our rural second home outside Brenham, where we rode out the storm. It hit the coast Friday night, then moved up our way by Saturday and especially on Sunday, when there was enough rainfall for the creek that runs through our property to leave its banks. Fortunately, damage in that part of Texas was relatively minimal; by Monday things were already getting back to normal and we didn’t find any significant impacts to that property. I had figured that I would be able to get back to my normal work life in Houston by Monday evening at the latest.

However, the worst-case rainfall scenario actually occurred, and roads were impassable everywhere between Brenham and the west side of Houston. So, I was stuck. I kept track of the local news on television and Internet, and it became quite nerve-wracking once the magnitude of the release from the dams became apparent. Not only had I received word of the disastrous impact on my co-workers and my sister in League City (her home took on several inches of water over several hours), my aged parents were close of the Buffalo Bayou inundation zone. I would not return to Houston until Thursday, and then only via a circuitous route to avoid closed roads and the traffic-choked Grand Parkway through Katy. Fortunately, my parents’ home didn’t suffer any damage, but I had to find food for them as they couldn’t handle standing in the long lines at area grocery stores, and travel in our part of Houston was also very limited because of street closures.

And then there was the long wait to get access to the office, which was surrounded by flood water. As power was out at our building, we couldn’t access the files on our servers, so productivity took a huge hit. We are grateful that executives from our parent firm, iDfour, were willing to wade through some very unsavory water to retrieve computer equipment that would allow us a little more capacity to get work done.

All in all, it was a basically terrible time; the loss of my co-workers’ homes, the lost time for work activity, and the general suffering of Houston and its citizens. I am just grateful that I didn’t suffer any direct damage personally. ​

​Had I not been in the real estate consulting business with a better than average knowledge of historical and current development patterns we probably would not have purchased flood insurance.  We had lived in our home for 42-years without a drop of flooding inside the home.  The idea that the reservoirs could fill up and the Corp of Engineers might have to release massive amounts of water into nearby neighborhoods had never been a topic of discussion.  Almost no one in our neighbor had opted for flood insurance because, based on experience it was an unneeded cost.  However, I was well aware there is not a house in the region that is immune from raising water given the amount of rainfall we get. 
 
Although losing a home, automobiles, and furnishings overnight was a traumatic happening, the flood insurance money allowed us to sell the home in an “as is” condition and quickly buy a new home.  One of the first things we did after moving to our new home was to purchase flood insurance. I strongly suggest that every homeowner in the Houston area do the same.

​Brenda Crenshaw
 
Harvey did not impact our home or my family, thank God. It did give several sleepless nights worrying about my daughter and her husband and our 2 month old grandson as she stayed in contact telling me how high the water was rising on her street. When they moved everything upstairs that they could, I got really worried. My husband and I tried to drive to them but the water surrounding their neighborhood was too high. Thankfully, the water finally resided and only got up to their garage door. Unfortunately two homes next to them were flooded.
 
As far as work, flood waters surrounded the building for weeks making it impassable. We were faced with no electricity for another week. The buildings elevators remained inoperable for about a month. Needless to say, four flights of stairs or 88 steps became a chore!

Ty Jacobsen
 
Harvey was, unfortunately, quite a difficult experience for me. I was living in an apartment complex right along Buffalo Bayou, quite close to the CDS offices on Dairy Ashford. I woke up on the morning of Sunday, August 27th to find the parking lot of the complex completely flooded, at least ankle-deep across its entirety. Fearing a flooded car, I drove through the high water and left it on the 2nd floor of the parking garage at the CDS offices. The water in the parking lot went down that afternoon, giving hope that the worst was over, only to rise back up even higher as torrential rains Sunday evening and through the night prompted increasing releases from the Addicks and Barker reservoirs. Water continued to rise on Monday, with a strong current from the nearby bayou making wading or floating to higher ground a dangerous proposition. I spent much of the day moving as many of my belongings as I could off of the ground. Power went out on Monday evening and, with floodwaters still about a foot short of inundating my first floor unit, I spent that night at a neighbor’s apartment on the second floor. The Coast Guard floated in on Tuesday afternoon and recommended that everyone evacuate. It took two trips by motor boat to reach unflooded ground.

Mike Prats

Being a native New Orleanian, I believe I may be naturally more in tune with hurricane events than the average person. On Wednesday August 23, 2017 before the storm I began to naturally (consciously and unconsciously) prepare myself mentally, physically and emotionally for the potential inundation of the entire city and lose of everything myself and everyone else had. I mean it had happened to myself and my city once before so like I said, it was just natural that I was consciously and unconsciously preparing for what I had already seen and experienced once before. I sent a link to a few co workers from pivotal weather dot com citing that some parts around Houston could have a total accumulation of up to 45 inches.

​Scott Reineking
 
I live in Oakhurst the area of Kingwood on the east side of Highway 59. We moved into the house about a year before Harvey and the area, at least for us, was untested for a flood. We were lucky and had no water problems at all and didn’t even lose power, even being only 1.5 miles from the San Jacinto River. We were isolated though (could only go north on Highway 59) and were not even able to check on our business which is close to Lake Houston. Fortunately that was fine as well, just lost two weeks of business revenue. I was finally able to log into the CDS computers after about two weeks and get some work completed.

​Urban Equilibrium is an ideal status that many smaller cities pursue but rarely achieve. Picture a city where the number of residents and businesses are equally balanced. Imagine a housing stock where the type and price range of houses accommodates all segments of the community. Reaching Urban Equilibrium means all existing residential, commercial, and industrial development are utilized without pockets of vacancy or blight. Follow the six steps outlined in this article to help your City get on the path towards Urban Equilibrium. 

In a perfect world such as described, nothing would be missing, no need unmet and no market sectors are over or under supplied. In this ideal environment, residents would be content, employers would experience low turnover, and prospective businesses and industries will be attracted to the city.
 
Of course, actual Urban Equilibrium can only be realized in our imaginations. But the vision of a balanced real estate environment can be useful as a goal. Attainment may always be out of reach, but there can be benefits in the pursuit. Proactively setting and pursuing development goals--no matter how unrealistic--is preferable to having local government policies that are reactionary and outdated.
 
The following six steps can help your city reach Urban Equilibrium.
 
1. Step one, begin by developing a database that describes the demographic, social, and employment make-up of the city. What are your housing needs, shopping needs for retail goods and services, office and industrial needs for the business community? Understanding the economic background and capability of the resident population is critical in determining the amount and type of development that is needed to satisfy your existing population.
 
2. Step two, identify the catalysts, trends, and other factors that influence how the database will change over time. Which major employers are growing and adding jobs? What events and local attractions are bringing in visitors? Are target industries actually attracted to your community? What percent of local employees commute from other communities? Are college graduates returning or do they go elsewhere to find employment? How will these and other factors impact the database defined in step one?

3. Step three, compile a real estate inventory that includes both descriptive data such as total housing stock, vacancy rates, and price points, as well as qualitative observations related to desirability, style, and location. This step may require some foot work and visits to housing and apartment developments, retail shopping centers, and office buildings. Some of this information will require personal interviews with knowledgeable individuals and some will come from reporting services and secondary sources. The key is to look beyond the numbers. Think of yourself as an investigative journalist out to uncover the real story behind why your community is the way it is.
 
4. The fourth step is the most critical: define the of deficiencies and gaps in the development supply and demand. Where are the holes and the mismatches? Putting all the findings together may not be simple. What does it mean when we find anomalies such as 100 percent occupancies, increasing vacancies, or long-standing inventories in certain price ranges or locations? What is the back story behind each of these situations? There is usually more than meets the eye. The idea is not only to determine where there are needs but why. And are the motivating circumstances likely to be permanent or just unusual aberrations that will abate with time?
 
5. Step five involves setting goals and priorities. Be forward looking in determining the best methods for filling the gaps and preparing for a more balanced future. Market forces will provide clear signals if stakeholders are given a means to communicate. Find ways to include all socioeconomic sectors in the visioning process. The challenge will be to differentiate between real community needs and perceived inconveniences. Once priorities have been established, a pragmatic working plan with a clear outline of action is essential. At this point its better to be realistic than idealistic. Achieving small but reachable goals over ten years is better than envisioning grand goals over 40 years.
 
6. Step six is also the next several steps, to be taken periodically. Revisit the programs each year, revise the plan as necessary, and benchmark the progress. Without constant monitoring, imbalances will quickly return. The path is long-term and never-ending as it leads toward the ideal city that can be envisioned but never quite reached. The effort is worthwhile because even small amounts of progress equate to recognizable accomplishments that contribute to a healthy and resilient community. 

​About the Author: Kent Dussair founded CDS in 1971 for the purpose of providing professional market and economic research and consulting services. With over 50 years of professional experience, Kent continues to help CDS implement and evaluate effective qualitative research.

​Every year CDS produces a land use and demographic profile for The Energy Corridor District—a business district on Houston’s west side. Each edition includes a thorough land use and demographic profile as well as projections for the future. For the 2017 edition CDS provided multiple future projections, accounting for a new land use trend that is gaining popularity in Houston and other parts of the country: place-oriented and mixed-use development.  

Place-Oriented in Houston
Place-oriented developments create value by providing a mix of activities. These activities might be structured, for example watching a free concert, partaking in an exercise class, or visiting a farmers market. Or they may be unstructured, such as watching children play, window shopping while strolling, or people-watching at an outdoor café. The key is that the typically mixed-use development is deliberately designed to integrate the components around a common or public space where walking and lingering are comfortable, and visitors are not required to buy anything or pay admission.
​
Mixed-use developments with office uses aren’t necessarily new in Houston. Hines built The Galleria in the early 1970s. It included three office buildings, later augmented by the Transco Tower, (connected via skybridge (later renamed Williams Tower), along with hotels and its indoor retail mall (expanded four times). The Houston Center development in Downtown included a mix of the same three uses, with more emphasis on office. Greenway Plaza also featured multiple uses, though its retail component was relatively limited. However, these projects had all appeared by the early 1980s, and none truly offered a non-enclosed public (or publicly-accessible) space outside of mall or food court corridors. After the economic crash of the mid-1980s, development of such projects also ended in Houston, for a couple decades or so. While these projects have been considered landmarks with Class A office properties, none of them was necessarily considered truly the most desired or prestigious office property in which to locate (except for Williams Tower).

The re-emergence of integrated mixed-use developments with a significant office use focus began in the mid-2000s with the development of Sugar Land Town Square and The Woodlands Town Center office core. However, a major differentiating factor for these projects is a deliberate inclusion of attractive and programmed public or public-oriented outdoor space as the heart of the development. In the case of Sugar Land Town Square, not only did the project include a public plaza, but also a new City Hall. These projects reflected an emphasis on creating “place” as a means to generate value for the other project components. The projects have been considered generally successful and among the more desirable office locations in the Houston region. Furthermore, the market has renewed appreciation for “naturally occurring” place-oriented districts (as opposed to planned developments) as desirable locations for office space, and a more deliberate embracing and enhancing of the public environments that form the connective tissue between uses and properties. Both Downtown and Uptown Houston (which contain Houston Center and The Galleria respectively) benefit from this renewed appreciation.

The Future for Mixed-Use Office Developments
The recent economic boom in the region has resulted in significant new office construction. The Energy Corridor District has shared in this new supply. However, its new office buildings, while being of very high quality in and of themselves, have taken the form of stand-alone, mid to high rise, generally single-use projects which lack a “place-oriented” component. Some of this may be due to the District’s traditional office tenant profile of upstream oil and gas companies, and this industry’s technical service providers, which are sometimes viewed as preferring more standard office properties, or even isolated campuses such as those built by Conoco and Shell Oil in the 1980s. (Conoco Phillips has left old campus and moved into one of the new stand-alone high rises.) 

​This contrasts with some other high-profile office construction in the region. A new Hines high rise building called CityCentre located in west Houston has made a deliberate effort in its design to engage with the adjacent public street and sidewalk. CityCentre is accreting new buildings onto its mixed-use core, and will also add more retail to accompany it, along with a recently completed new multifamily complex. The River Oaks District and Kirby Collection contain moderate-scale “boutique” office uses. Most notably, the Springwoods Village development near The Woodlands has attracted the headquarters of Southwestern Energy and will build two new office buildings in its walkable mixed-use core to accommodate relocations of major tenants the American Bureau of Shipping (ABS) and HP. Furthermore, ExxonMobil built its campus there; while the campus itself is not publicly accessible, it is telling that it is directly adjacent to the “place-oriented” core of Springwoods Village. A high-profile office broker noted to CDS that the ABS and HP relocations, with their build-to-suit projects, occurred during a time in the office market when they could have taken advantage of numerous high quality buildings with plenty of available space and favorable lease terms.
​
North Texas projects such as Legacy (especially Legacy West) and CityLine further emphasize this trend. Those developments have featured some of the highest-profile anchor tenant relocations in that region, such as State Farm, JP Morgan Chase, and Toyota. It is interesting that in both Houston and North Texas projects, the emphasis is usually on low to mid rise office buildings, rather than high rises.

Place-Oriented Development in the Energy Corridor
So, what might this mean for the future of office growth in The Energy Corridor District? That’s a question CDS has been pondering in its new projections for the District, meant to reflect a “generation” in the future, which has traditionally meant approximately 25 years. Will the District’s office tenant base seek out more “place-oriented” developments? Will a broader range of industries choose to locate in the District if such environments are available? Both vacant and redevelopment sites are available to implement that sort of development vision. In fact, one developer is already trying to do so; Third Palm Capital, the owners of the office property previously home to Exxon Chemical Americas, are seeking to turn the formerly closed campus into a more publicly-accessible and multi-use community called Republic Square, including social events, artist spaces, and potentially even retail uses; the property also benefits from adjacency to the popular Terry Hershey Park. Their project is yet in its infancy but there are already signs of potential success, with office leases being signed and strong attendance at public events. Will Republic Square be just the first of several “place-oriented” developments that reshape The Energy Corridor District activity center? What about other activity centers, such as Westchase, Upper Kirby, and Greenspoint? Will new activity centers emerge (perhaps the future Bridgeland Town Center and Towne Lake Town Center?) that are wholly based on the “place-oriented” concept? 

​While not even CDS is sage enough to provide a definitive answer to these questions – after all, stand-alone office uses haven’t gone away and will still be developed to some extent going forward – we think it’s a reasonable bet that “place-oriented” developments and districts will provide a larger share of the office workplace in the future in Houston. Our brains are certainly intrigued by the “power of place.” 

During the oil slump, demand for large home sites fell as luxury home sales slowed. However, as oil prices have climbed back above $50 a barrel, demand for large home lots is expected to grow, said Steve Spillette, president of Community Development Strategies.

“We’re hearing increased interest from builders and consumers about larger-sized homes,” Spillette said. “Moving forward, I wouldn’t be surprised if demand for larger lots comes back.”

Community Development Strategies recently released its bi-annual lot price survey, which polled developers in 100 communities across the Houston region about the cost of their home sites during the second half of 2016.

The Houston-based real estate research firm found that demand for smaller home lots is still going strong as homebuilders have rushed to construct more affordable homes during the energy downturn. In most Houston neighborhoods, prices for 50- and 60-foot home lots have climbed consistently while prices have seesawed for 70-foot and larger home lots.

In master-planned communities, the average price for a 50-foot home lot increased by $2,000 year over year to $52,000, while the average price for a 60-foot home lot increased by $5,000 year over year to $62,000, according to Community Development Strategies.

“We saw pretty healthy increases in the 50- and 60-foot lots, but it’s not quite as prominent as our last report (in early 2016),” said Ty Jacobsen, senior market and GIS analyst for Community Development Strategies. “The trend toward smaller lots is still there, but it’s not quite as pronounced.”

However, homebuilders and developers have started to notice an uptick in inquiries for larger home sites as Houston’s economy starts to recover from the oil slump, Spillette said. This shift toward larger homes on larger lots is represented in recent reports from the Houston Association of Realtors, which found that the luxury home market is making a rebound.

Click here for a link to the full Houston Business Journal article.

G​rowth and development in Conroe, Montgomery and Willis were the focal points of the inaugural Lake Conroe Summit 2017, which was hosted by the Montgomery Area Chamber of Commerce March 31. ...Steve Spillette, CDS Community Development Strategies President, served as the keynote speaker and presented the findings from his study, which forecasts the growth of the Lake Conroe area out to the year 2045.

“[The Lake Conroe area] is growing at a significantly faster rate than the Houston metro area overall, which is saying a lot because the Houston metro area has been one of the fastest growing areas in the entire nation,” Spillette said. “So the fact that you are actually ahead of the entire metro area, really speaks to how fast you’re actually growing.”

To read more, click here for a link to the full article.

To view the full study, visit www.lakeconroesummit.com or see it here.

Is your downtown in need of revitalizing? Unpredictable economic conditions and changing demographic trends create challenges for aging urban centers. CDS can conduct a market analysis to develop a realistic vision of how to generate new investment within your downtown. Our plans are comprehensive, actionable, supportable and measurable.

CDS is currently working with the City of Mesquite on a downtown revitalization project. Mesquite is an eastern suburb of Dallas, Texas. The city has a population of 144,416, making it the twentieth most populous city in the State of Texas. Relative to the greater Mesquite area, the Downtown’s older buildings and sub‐standard uses are a distant reminder of the past and clear evidence of the need for purposeful and sustainable planning for the future.

Despite having several unique gems, downtown Mesquite has a mix of sub‐standard uses, a lack of walkability, and multiple blighted buildings. But is has some great things going for it, including City Council support for new public investment, terrific vehicle access, several volunteers willing to work on redevelopment, and a gap in the market for a destination Downtown within the eastern sector of DFW.

Stay tuned as CDS works on a plan for revitalizing this downtown. We will be putting into place the lessons we have learned over the course of the years for initiating a successful downtown revitalization. These include the following:
 
A Champion — Identify a key individual with vision, passion and leadership qualities who is willing to serve as the catalyst to energize the different individual, business and civic players who need to come together.

​An Organization — Form a special purpose organization, with a strong board of private sector leaders, and help find a way to adequately fund it.

Proper Ordinances — Restoration and preservation ordinances, architectural guidelines, building standards and permitting requirements and policies must be reviewed, revised, adopted and enforced.

Market Knowledge — A clear understanding of the market potential for retail, office, services and residential development is necessary to attract the right types of investment.

Broad Involvement — A high level of volunteer citizen involvement in non-profit organizations is necessary to oversee restoration and preservation and to organize festivals and celebrations to attract visitors.

Civic Facilities — Relocations or addition of branches of civic facilities such as city hall, county courthouse, community centers and performing arts facilities as well as utility, street, streetscape, sidewalk, lighting and park improvements are important stimulants.

Lead Tenants — Care must be taken to secure lead tenants that will bring visitors and create an inviting environment.

Adequate Parking — Assure that convenient parking is provided in a manner that does not detract from pedestrian mobility, shopping convenience or continuity of a historic district.

Residential Development — Preserve historic single family home residential areas and stimulate new residential development near the downtown commercial districts.

An Exciting Plan — Create a plan that inspires people and creates a buzz about the potential for the area. Use artist renderings of the revitalized area and locate them in a prominent high traffic area of the downtown area.

​Marketing— Continue with new and creative efforts to actively market the Downtown area for new compatible development and for tenants in the existing buildings.

About the Author:  Brenda G Crenshaw is Vice President of CDS Community Development Strategies. She specializes in office, retail, industrial, multi-family, condominium and student housing analysis. ​

You might have seen this graphic passing around the internet this week. Are the strawberries below red or gray? It turns out they're actually gray. Read this article to find out why, and also for some insight into one big illusion that is often perpetuated in economic development circles--that job creation is always about the numbers. Companies often come into a community wanting incentives and promising jobs. But are the jobs they're promising worth the incentive?

First of all, in the previous image, you might still be convinced that you are seeing red... but I promise you, you're really seeing gray. You brain--similar to an automatic-color-balancer in a camera--is adjusting what you see because of the green tint. Your brain translates the green into white. In doing so, it also sees the gray as red. You don't have to know anything about strawberries for this to work. This is a feature of the ​human color perception system which ensures that the perceived color of objects remains relatively constant under varying illumination conditions.

Not unlike the optical illusion displayed above, we often see job growth figures tossed around that are boasting local, regional, or even national economic gains. But upon closer examination, we see that many of these jobs are often low wage--some very low. The chart below provides statistics on the ten largest occupations in the US in 2015. As can be seen, the average annual pay for eight out of ten occupations is below $30,000. Most of these occupations are associated with the retail industry.

This data from 2015 highlights a challenge that is often played out in small to medium sized cities all across America. Incentives are offered by these cities to attract businesses that are promising sales tax revenue and job growth. Each claim deserves serious scrutiny, particularly those associated with job growth. Part time jobs should be added up to count full time equivalent (FTE) jobs. While a typical big box retail store may have 200-300 part time jobs to cover various shifts, this often only adds up to 50 or less FTEs. And these retail focused jobs typically pay very little, often less than what is considered a living wage (a wage high enough to keep the wage earner out of poverty given the local cost of living requirements such as housing payments).

The bottom line is that while many businesses claim to be adding jobs to the local economy, relatively few add the more desirable high paying, permanent jobs. This is an important consideration that cannot be overlooked. While a local jurisdiction can liberally provide incentives to "grow at all costs," a more long-term, strategic approach will pay higher dividends. While enticing a small business of 20 employees may not look as good as adding a retail business with 200-300 jobs, that small business is the better investment (from the perspective of a local government that has limited incentive dollars to spend). Adding a handful of higher paying jobs that will allow employees to purchase a home in the area will have a profoundly more positive impact on the local economy than 200-300 part time jobs that will often not shift the economic indicators after closer examination. 

​For seniors who are thinking about downsizing or retirement, there’s another option out there that’s growing in popularity: senior cohousing. This communal housing model is particularly well-suited for seniors because it offers a support system and social environment not normally available in conventional retirement communities. By design, cohousing residents live in a close-knit arrangement that encourages neighbors to know and help each other. The objective is to create and maintain a small community of seniors who share skills, interests, and a vision of mutual support and friendship—while still preserving and respecting individual privacy. 

Some of the basic principles that define Cohousing include;

• Resident members jointly make all the planning decisions and manage the community
• The neighborhood site plan is designed to encourage a sense of community
• Common facilities are supplemental to individually designed homes
• There is no community hierarchy, no shared economy and profit making is not the purpose

 
Presently, most senior cohousing communities are self-formed. Anyone interested can start by gathering a group of senior friends, explaining the concept and finding out those who are both interested and well suited for this life style. Once a core group is formed and dedicated to moving forward, there are experienced consultants who specialize in holding “get it done” workshops to educate and guide the entire development process. Workshops are held in different parts of the country and thoroughly cover everything from initial planning strategies, timelines for each step, site selection considerations, architectural design ideas and financing options.

​The key for the core group is to learn how to work together in planning, recruiting additional members, and following through on all the steps in an organized manner. Bonds formed among members during the development stages are carried on into the all-important living together period that follows. Depending on the expertise of group members outside help will probably be needed in securing the land, designing the homes and site amenities, obtaining approvals, raising the money, and implementing the development process.  

The physical design of cohousing often includes many of the same features. Private, usually smaller, conventional homes are built in a compound setting that affords easy access to common facilities, gardens, and open space. Most cohousing designs include a “common house,” which is usually not connected to individual dwellings but is conveniently located and serves as a central location for community happenings. Regular cohousing activities usually include community dinners, parties, crafts, classes, and more.
 
The acreage requirements will vary depending on densities but a site large enough to accommodate 30 to 35 homes appears to be ideal. Most projects feature all new housing with a limited number of floor plans for construction efficiencies but offer elevation options that provide design diversity. Katy McCamant of Cohousing Solutions and Chuck Durrett of Durrett Architecture have held workshops and worked together to help design and build over fifty socially vibrant and environmentally sustainable cohousing communities throughout the U.S. and Canada. A good way to learn more about the subject would be to read The Senior Cohousing Handbook, 2nd Edition: A Community Approach to Independent Living. The following slideshow from Kraus Fitch Architects also provides some additional insight.
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Michael Prats joined CDS in January 2017 as a Senior Market Analyst where he provides demographic, economic and real estate market research, analysis and evaluation for a variety of private and public sector clients.

Michael Prats is an economic community development, urban and regional planning professional. He was born in New Orleans, LA and moved to Kingwood, TX at age five where he attended elementary, middle and high school and began his college education at the University of New Orleans. In 2005 after being displaced by Hurricane Katrina he transferred to Texas State University where he graduated with a Bachelor of Science in Geography in 2008. In Summer 2007, prior to his final undergrad semester, he was accepted to America's Leaders Program at The Washington Center for Internships and Academic Seminars in Washington D.C. where he gained experience in lobbying and policy making at the federal level while also working as a research intern at the Urban Land Institute Headquarters.

Michael moved back to New Orleans in 2008 after being accepted to the University of New Orleans Master of Urban and Regional Planning graduate program. Graduate school work included a team project for a CDFI client which involved a five-month, ten county demographic and market analysis and presentation of strategic recommendations to the client’s executive board and community stakeholders. He also authored a thesis on local business retention and expansion.

He became very involved in post-Katrina neighborhood revitalization and disaster recovery efforts. Michael worked with the Boston based planning firm Goody Clancy as a public meeting facilitator for the New Orleans Master Plan and Zoning Ordinance.

​In addition to working with local groups gutting flooded homes, he led a successful neighborhood revitalization and recovery project and worked in youth development throughout the Greater New Orleans region from 2008 to 2012.

​In early 2013 he began working for the Lake Houston Area Economic Development Partnership. He spent the next three years as the primary point of contact for economic development projects in the area. He increased local economic development capacity and created a formal and organized economic development plan and strategy for the Lake Houston area by; creating a business retention and expansion program, researching and publishing demographic trends and market data reports for the area as well as branding the Lake Houston area by creating and growing an effective web presence with www.LakeHoustonEDP.org, social media and other content. He managed the day to day activities of the EDP and expedited the area’s transition from bedroom community to activity and job center. 

But Jim Murphy, general manager of the Westchase District, said his sights are set on bringing more Class A apartment communities to the area. There's an "unmet demand of several thousand units" in the area, he said, considering that the area saw net employment growth last year. Westchase could support up to 7,000 new Class A apartment units, according to research from CDS [Community Development Strategies] provided by the Westchase District.

​That's in stark contrast with the city's overall Class A apartment market. According to a Marcus & Millichap report, Class A apartment occupancy rates have fallen from the 90th percentile during the recent energy boom to 80.1 percent in the third quarter — dragging Houston’s entire multifamily market down. As of November, occupancy rates have now fallen for six straight quarters amid the oil slump, according to Transwestern.

Murphy said the Westchase District has approximately 16,000 multifamily units excluding condos. Last year, 550 apartment units delivered in Westchase, he said, and another 250 units are set to deliver soon. It's unclear if any of the units are part of Class A communities.

In an effort to recruit more residents to Westchase, several projects focusing on green space are underway.

One of such projects is set to kick off soon. The district is working with The Office of James Burnett to start Wilcrest Park, a "blank canvas" of three acres alongside Wilcrest Drive. The park will be planned throughout much of 2017 and built in 2018, Murphy said, and will include a dog park, play grounds, senior fitness options, potentially a space for food trucks and more. Murphy said it'll be the "first park like this in the region."

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CDS was recently hired to perform a demographic study in the Oklahoma City area. While completing this study, we were somewhat surprised by the prevalence of large-lot residential subdivisions of relatively recent vintage. This article examines the possible reasons why large acreage residential developments are more common in the Oklahoma City area. ​

In many cities, large acreage residential developments can be found on the outskirts of town—although they typically make up a rather small share of the total housing stock. In the Oklahoma City area, these types of residential developments are common around much of the perimeter of the built-up suburban areas and in formerly rural towns. In these developments, residential lots are typically 0.5 to 2.0 acres, each with on-site wells and septic systems, and newly built homes are $300,000 to $500,000. This price puts developments such as these well within the reach of most upper-middle class single income households, and many dual income middle class households. 
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These developments are typically situated within a reasonable commute of central Oklahoma City. For example, the aerial photos below are two areas of large-lot residential we found during our research. We have included an accompanying directions map to illustrate the commute to the Devon Energy Center (Devon Tower)--Oklahoma City’s most well-known high-rise office building. (Click on the images below to increase the size).

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About the Author: Steve Spillette is President of CDS Community Development Strategies and has performed a variety of market studies and financial pro-forma analyses for both private and public clients. Mr. Spillette has several years of experience in retail market analysis and multiple degrees related to real estate and planning--including an MBA from Texas A&M University.

​What is active adult housing? From my “seasoned” perspective, let me explain it to all you whippersnappers out there. There comes a time when we reluctantly stumble into the never-never land known as old age, and our world begins to change. We can’t run and jump like we used to, and sometimes just making it from the chair to the refrigerator seems like an Olympic event. The good news is, homebuilders have us in mind. 

For most of us it takes a while to come to grips with this new reality. First we convince ourselves this unholy transformation is only temporary and “tomorrow” we’ll be back on top. Sooner or later reality sets in and we must swallow the bitter pill that we are never going to be young again. But on the bright side, you won’t be alone. In fact, more and more people are making it to old age. According to many gerontologists, life expectancy continues to lengthen and someday soon just about everyone will enjoy becoming a Centenarian. To accommodate this growing demographic, many things must change—not the least of which will be senior housing. 

For those of us approaching old age the question often arises “why can’t I just stay where I am”. Well maybe you could, at least for now. The practical issue is, why the heck would anyone even consider making the effort to move into something other than a comfortable single family home or nice garden apartment? How could any alternative environment possibly be better suited to our new found, albeit grudgingly appreciated, situation. Well, let’s examine the precept. The idea here is to maintain our dignity, lose the extra rooms and stairs we don’t need while preserving our cherished independent lifestyle. Even the vaguest thought of life in an institutional retirement home is totally frightening, and out of the question for many. So, let’s get serious here, what are our options? 

Well, our friends in the real estate development business understand the conundrum and have come up with a notion that addresses seniors’ needs and at the same time allows one to feel good about themselves. The concept is known as “Active Adult Living.” It does have a ring to it! And, it seems that many of us have slowly but surely accepted the fact that Active Adult Living is a plausible solution. In fact, more and more of my peers have already made the move. Personally, I’m still suspicious of the whole thing; just saying the words Active Adult reminds gives me visions of wheelchairs and mushy peas. 

Let’s be honest, the concept of age-restricted housing is not for everyone –especially those who don’t want to be socially active. But maybe it’s not that bad. Imagine a livable one story design with lots of amenities, security that allows you to lock, leave and travel, neighbors just like you, lots of fun activities and a state of the art facility for staying fit and healthy. We can even continue to barbeque in the back yard, tend to the garden, and take walks in the neighborhood. On the surface, it sounds pretty damn good. Which explains why the Active Adult Living master planned communities are becoming very popular among the chronologically impaired.  Come to think of it I have enjoyed visiting friends in several of the highly landscaped gated housing communities that are popping up all around Houston. I can’t remember hearing any complaints.  Hmmm... I think I might go look at some models this weekend. ​

About the Author: Kent Dussair founded CDS in 1971 for the purpose of providing professional market and economic research and consulting services. With over 50 years of professional experience, Kent continues to help CDS implement and evaluate effective qualitative research.

To a hammer, everything is a nail. Well at CDS, you're not a nail, and we're not a hammer. Instead, we like to think of ourselves as a multitool. We have expertise and experience in a wide range of services. When our clients hire us for a project, we provide customized research and in-depth analysis. 

CDS is brining this message to our clients. Below is a picture of our booth at the recent ​ICSC conference (International Council of Shopping Centers). If you see us and this booth at future conferences, stop by and say hello. We would be happy to answer any questions you have and also get you your very own CDS pocket knife. 

​Driving around the vast Houston region, you will see an abundance of green and white signs noting that you are now “Entering Houston City Limit”, or crossing the “Fort Bend County Line”. These helpful markers make the otherwise invisible borders of these important jurisdictions apparent to us without the aid of a map. Less apparent are the boundaries of a type of jurisdiction that is, in many cases, equally as important as cities and counties, the school district.

'​Texas school districts are independent* of municipal governments', and their boundaries quite often do not line up with municipal boundaries. A total of 64 different school districts are wholly or partially located in the 9-County Houston MSA, many crossing city limits, county lines, and even individual subdivisions. School districts also vary in quality, both real and perceived, making them one of the most powerful factors in residential development and property valuation in the Houston area and across the state. In some cases, this can even be seen on maps and aerial photographs that do not show school district boundaries.

Last month, residents from the Village of Diamond Bay subdivision (part of the Shadow Creek Ranch master-planned community) petitioned to have their subdivision moved from the Fort Bend Independent School District (FBISD) to the Alvin Independent School District (AISD). Residents cited the distance between their neighborhood and the FBISD schools to which they are zoned compared to their distance from nearby AISD schools as a primary reason. They also cited a difference in quality between their FBISD schools and the nearby AISD campuses.

​Several residents stated that they were not aware that they were zoned to FBISD schools when they purchased their homes. Builders and realtors, it was said, provided very little information about the area’s schools. One person stated that a salesperson drove them around to nearby AISD campuses, implying that the subdivision was zoned to these schools. Some who moved in from out of state were unfamiliar with Texas’ school district structure and puzzled as to how homes in the same development could be zoned to different schools and districts.

​In order for the petition to succeed and transfer the Village of Diamond Bay from FBISD to AISD, it must be approved by the board of trustees of both districts. Last week, FBISD’s board of trustees voted against the proposal. AISD’s board has yet to vote. If the districts are split on approval of the petition, residents could then appeal to the Texas education commissioner to move them into AISD. 

​There is recent precedent in the Houston area for attempting to transfer a subdivision from one district to another, but not for such a move taking place. In 2007, when the north Harris County subdivision of Northgate Forest in Spring ISD petitioned to be moved to adjacent Klein ISD, the petition failed. Spring ISD’s board voted unanimously against the proposal and Klein ISD also voted down the request, citing issues they found with the legal requirements of the petition. Northgate Forest remains a part of Spring ISD.

​It is evident that knowledge and understanding of school district boundaries in the Houston area and across the state of Texas is not sufficient, given their importance to residents, homebuyers, realtors, and developers. The ultimate responsibility of knowing what school district a home is located in rests with the resident themselves, however, efforts to better inform residents should be made. The Texas Education Agency’s tremendously helpful School District Locator website should be widely publicized. Putting up some of those green and white roadside signs to mark school district boundaries would not hurt either.

Steve Spillette, president of CDS, was recently interviewed by the Houston Business Journal. His interview is as follows: 

Developers are lowering prices on large home lots as luxury home sales have slowed during the oil slump, according to a new report. Community Development Strategies, a Houston-based real estate research firm, recently released its bi-annual lot price survey, which polled developers in 100 communities across the Houston metro region about the cost of their home sites. Most major developers, except for The Howard Hughes Corp. (NYSE: HHC), participated in the survey, which was conducted in July and announced in late September.

​Community Development Strategies found that lot prices, for the most part, have remained stable across the Bayou City despite the oil slump.

The average residential lot in Houston’s master-planned communities ranged in price from $60,000 for a 50-foot lot to $100,000 for an 80-foot lot. The average home lot in a conventional, non-amenitized community ranged in price from $45,000 for a 50-foot lot to about $98,100 for an 80-foot lot.

“Land prices tend to be very sticky,” said Steve Spillette, president of Community Development Strategies. “Things will have to get a lot worse for prices to come down. Our slump isn’t bad enough or long enough.”

However, residential developers are discounting prices for large, 70-plus-foot lots on the northwest side of Houston, according to Community Development Strategies. The average price for a 70- or 80-foot lot in the northwest quadrant fell between $3,000 and $4,000 between January and July, according to CDS' most recent report. In the southwest quadrant, the average price for a 70- or 80-foot lot fell as much as $10,000 during the same time frame.

The lower prices for these large lots is reflective of the low oil prices’ effect on the upstream energy sector, Spillette said.

“Demand for expensive homes on large lots is softer so you’re seeing some price decreases,” Spillette said.

However, prices for large home lots in Houston’s northeast and southeast quadrants have held steady, because people who are living there are less likely to be working in the upstream oil and gas sector, Spillette said.

“Large lot sizes have remained in demand (on the east side) so prices have gone up,” Spillette said.

In addition, master-planned community developers are also less likely to lower their prices for large home lots, Spillette said. There has been a bigger price drop for large home lots in conventional, non-amenitized residential communities compared to highly-amenitized master-planned communities, he said.

“Homebuilders are trying to get positions in master-planned communities, because they think there’s more market security there,” Spillette said.

Developers are now shifting their land mix to accommodate smaller home lots — where homebuilders can construct more affordable homes that are still selling amid the oil slump, Spillette said. Some developers are looking to replat, or reconfigure, their tracts to fit smaller home lots instead of large home lots, he added.

“Homes between $200,000 and $350,000 are still very much in demand,” Spillette said. “That market is still quite strong.”

​Last night at St. Arnold's Brewery near Downtown Houston, CDS released the latest edition of the Lot Price Survey. The event was well attended by representatives from the area's residential development industry. Beer and BBQ were served, and a presentation was given summarizing the latest trends and findings from the survey. Lennar's Cindy Hinson also presented on the topic of multi-generational housing.

The Greater Houston Area Lot Price Survey is a semi-annual report published each April and September. The survey features detailed information on selected active single-family subdivisions throughout the Greater Houston Area.​ For more information, visit our Lot Price Survey info page. ​

To see more pictures from the evening's event, click on the images below. To view the Fall 2016 Houston Area Lot Price Survey PRESENTATION, click here.