J. Kirby Snideman, ACIP
CDS Community Development Strategies

While many demographic trends in America ebb and flow, there are a few that remain constant. One important trend: America is becoming less rural. In the past, both rural and urban areas have grown—urban growth just far surpassed rural growth. Recently, however, non-metro areas in the U.S. have seen the first overall population decrease since these numbers were tracked.

​A look at the Numbers
​In 1900, the U.S. urban population was just over 30 million while the rural population was just shy of 46 million. The split was 39.6% urban and 60.4% rural. By 2010, the urban share increased to 80.7% while the rural share shrank to 19.3%. For some states, like Texas, this reverse was even more drastic, going from 82.9% rural to 15.3% over the same time. 

While the share of rural residents in America has decreased significantly, the number of residents has actually increased… but only slightly. In comparison, the number of residents considered urban has increased exponentially. Put another way, nearly all the growth in this country has been urban.

Every big city was once little. But why do so many small towns never really grow? Here are six common reasons why some small places stay that way. While most little towns cannot affect the first two, the last four might represent an opportunity for growth... if they can be corrected.

1) The times they are a changin’.
There are historical reasons cities are located where they are and sometimes the original location factors no longer exist or at least are not relevant.  When highways replaced railroads as the primary means of access some small cities became less of a destination and more of a self-contained community.  Typically, new highways intentionally bypass commercial areas to avoid stop lights and congestion.  Over time key industries/employers can dry up or even shut down and the demand for historically mainstay agricultural crops may diminish.  Replacing these employers or products can be slow if not impossible.  

J. Kirby Snideman, AICP
CDS Community Development Strategies

Multigenerational housing is making a comeback. After decades of decline, the number of Americans living in multigenerational households dropped to roughly 26 million in 1970. Since then it’s more than doubled; currently there are an estimated 60 million Americans (18%) living in a home with three or more generations. This article examines the reasons behind this trend and also provides a look at the new types of homes being built to accommodate multigenerational families. 

According to data from the American Community Survey (ACS), the number of Americans living in multigenerational households in 2012 was 57 million, or 18.1% of the total population. These 57 million Americans occupied 4.3 million homes. That accounted for 5.6% of all occupied homes in the United States. That’s up from 3.7% of occupied homes in 2000.
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Multigenerational households were more common at the beginning of the last century, but declined significantly following World War II. During this time the United States experienced a period of economic expansion which manifested itself in widespread suburban development and an increased supply of single family homes. With home ownership as national policy, mortgages became widely available. In addition, suburban growth and a ready supply of spec homes across the nation accommodated a highly mobile workforce, resulting in many families being spread across several states. 

Steve Spillette
CDS Community Development Strategies

In an effort to lure new commercial development, many communities want to make sure that prospective developers and businesses have access to accurate demographic data. However, this can be challenging in areas that are growing rapidly. Understanding this challenge requires a basic understanding about how demographic data is collected.

J. Kirby Snideman, AICP
CDS Community Development Strategies

The US population growth rate is currently around 0.7%. US GDP growth during the 4th quarter of 2015 was 1.4%. Stock market growth of over the long term is generally expected at 6-7%. What do these growth rates mean and how can you quickly makes sense of them? This article explains the Rule of 70, a tool frequently used by urban planners to help the public quickly grasp the impact of growth rates--like Jeb Bush's 4% economic growth goal released last year.

​In addition to having more dogs, households are spending more money on them. While the percentage of households owning a dog increased by roughly 6% from 2005 to 2015, total U.S. consumer spending on pets nearly doubled, going from just over 36 billion to a projected 60 billion over the same period. A significant portion of that pet spending is dog related.

Not only are the number of dog owning households increasing, but dog owners have become increasingly vocal. Jurisdictions around the country have been responsive. In the 100 largest cities the number of dog parks have increased from roughly 420 in 2005 to more than 650 in 2015, a 53% rise. 

Link to article.  PDF of article.

By 2050, the tri-county West Houston/Katy area is expected to add about 260 square miles of residential development and double in population to about 2.2 million.

To help plan for that expected explosion, the West Houston Association on Thursday unveiled its blueprint entailing more than two years of study, ''West Houston Plan 2050: Envisioning Greater West Houston at Mid-Century."

Topics tackled by a panel of experts include market research, residential development, infrastructural management and trends in city growth.

West Houston has seen an increase of 85,000 net jobs — most in business and professional services — in the the last 12 months, said panelist Charles Savino, executive vice president of CDS Market Research.

The economy is largely driven by the oil and gas industry, Savino said, and that is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future with ''the Energy Corridor, Westchase, Memorial Parkway and Interstate 10 all continuing to be major activity centers."

A conservative estimate, he said, is that at least 400,000 housing units and 43 million square feet of office space will be needed during the next half-century.

''To maintain growth we will have to improve the things we're doing — low cost of living, low cost of business hurdles," Savino said. ''Nothing's secure, nothing's certain, (but) attractiveness factors help areas grow."

See the link for the full article.