Kent Dussair
CDS Community Development Strategies

The real estate market moves in cycles. When times are good, new projects are easy to justify—whether the land use is residential, commercial, or something else. But when the economic times are uncertain, the best use of a property is not always clear. In the Houston area, where the local economy has been adversely affected by low oil prices, land owners and developers are still moving forward… but cautiously. Projects currently underway are being closely scrutinized while future planned developments are being re-evaluated. Determining the highest and best use for an undeveloped (or under-developed) property is always important, but in a challenging local real estate market, it is absolutely essential.

J. Kirby Snideman, ACIP
CDS Community Development Strategies

While many demographic trends in America ebb and flow, there are a few that remain constant. One important trend: America is becoming less rural. In the past, both rural and urban areas have grown—urban growth just far surpassed rural growth. Recently, however, non-metro areas in the U.S. have seen the first overall population decrease since these numbers were tracked.

​A look at the Numbers
​In 1900, the U.S. urban population was just over 30 million while the rural population was just shy of 46 million. The split was 39.6% urban and 60.4% rural. By 2010, the urban share increased to 80.7% while the rural share shrank to 19.3%. For some states, like Texas, this reverse was even more drastic, going from 82.9% rural to 15.3% over the same time. 

While the share of rural residents in America has decreased significantly, the number of residents has actually increased… but only slightly. In comparison, the number of residents considered urban has increased exponentially. Put another way, nearly all the growth in this country has been urban.

The map below shows the largest race or ethnicity in each Census Block Group geography in the 8-county Houston region* in 2000 and in 2010.  Each of the four major race or ethnic groups in the Houston region are color-coded, and the shade of each color indicates the magnitude of the largest group in each geography.  The darker colors indicate Block Groups where greater than 80% of the population is part of the largest race or ethnicity.  The medium shades show where the largest group makes up between 50% and 80% of the population.  The lightest shade of each race or ethnic group’s color code indicates a geography where the largest ethnic group makes up less than 50% of the population.  It is these lightest shade Block Groups where race and ethnic diversity is highest.

J. Kirby Snideman, AICP
CDS Community Development Strategies

Multigenerational housing is making a comeback. After decades of decline, the number of Americans living in multigenerational households dropped to roughly 26 million in 1970. Since then it’s more than doubled; currently there are an estimated 60 million Americans (18%) living in a home with three or more generations. This article examines the reasons behind this trend and also provides a look at the new types of homes being built to accommodate multigenerational families. 

According to data from the American Community Survey (ACS), the number of Americans living in multigenerational households in 2012 was 57 million, or 18.1% of the total population. These 57 million Americans occupied 4.3 million homes. That accounted for 5.6% of all occupied homes in the United States. That’s up from 3.7% of occupied homes in 2000.
​
Multigenerational households were more common at the beginning of the last century, but declined significantly following World War II. During this time the United States experienced a period of economic expansion which manifested itself in widespread suburban development and an increased supply of single family homes. With home ownership as national policy, mortgages became widely available. In addition, suburban growth and a ready supply of spec homes across the nation accommodated a highly mobile workforce, resulting in many families being spread across several states. 

Steve Spillette
CDS Community Development Strategies

In an effort to lure new commercial development, many communities want to make sure that prospective developers and businesses have access to accurate demographic data. However, this can be challenging in areas that are growing rapidly. Understanding this challenge requires a basic understanding about how demographic data is collected.

J. Kirby Snideman, AICP
CDS Community Development Strategies

The US population growth rate is currently around 0.7%. US GDP growth during the 4th quarter of 2015 was 1.4%. Stock market growth of over the long term is generally expected at 6-7%. What do these growth rates mean and how can you quickly makes sense of them? This article explains the Rule of 70, a tool frequently used by urban planners to help the public quickly grasp the impact of growth rates--like Jeb Bush's 4% economic growth goal released last year.

CDS Community Development Strategies

The Energy Corridor District recently released the 2016 Land Use and Demographics report, completed by CDS Community Development Strategies. This report presents a complete profile of the population and development located within the boundaries of The Houston Energy Corridor. CDS has completed a similar report for the Energy Corridor over the last several years. ​​

Steve Spillette
CDS Community Development Strategies

​Much has been said recently about the relationship between Houston and the price of oil. While most agree that the local economy is more robust than it once was, many are still wondering just how big an impact low oil prices will have. One way to answer this question is to look at how the region was impacted by high oil prices in the recent past. The synopsis: it added over 100,000 six-figure income households—something future growth is not expected to duplicate any time soon. 

​Millennials—those currently 19 to 34 years old (born 1981 to 1996)—have been a challenging demographic group for the home building industry to figure out. They’ve kept many wondering as to when and where they will finally decide to buy a home. 

​One major reason Millennials are acting differently has to do with finances. According to the New American Foundation, the average Millennial graduating with a bachelor’s degree has nearly $30k in student loans. This long-term burden of debt competes with other expenditures, and makes it harder to qualify for mortgages. Add fewer job opportunities (and job advances) to the mix and it’s not hard to understand why Millennials are living at home longer with parents, renting rather than buying, and putting off marriage and children. More than changing preferences—these are often sound financial choices. Eventually, Millennials will be buying homes, but they will do so at a lower rate than previous generations and on a delayed time schedule. 

Reports of the death of the big American home have been greatly exaggerated. According to data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the size of new American homes has been on the rise since hitting a low point in late 2009. In that year the median average fell to 2,159 square feet (SF), down from the pre-recession high of 2,295 SF in 2007. During that short period of decline, some pointed to the end of the big American home trend—citing the downsizing of baby boomers and the differing preferences of millennials. But since 2009, the median average home size in America has steadily increased. In 2014, the median average was 2,517 SF—a  17% increase since 2009 and a 60% increase since 1974.

Last Thursday, Walmart ended its Walmart Express concept, shuttering all 102 such stores. Walmart announced earlier in January that they planned to close several underperforming stores across all of their formats, but it was the entirety of Walmart Express that made up the bulk of the planned closures. Despite that fact, the Walmart Express format meets a relatively quiet end, as discussion of Walmart store closures as an economic indicator largely drowned out discussion of the Express format itself. It is a format that deserves some further examination.

​In addition to having more dogs, households are spending more money on them. While the percentage of households owning a dog increased by roughly 6% from 2005 to 2015, total U.S. consumer spending on pets nearly doubled, going from just over 36 billion to a projected 60 billion over the same period. A significant portion of that pet spending is dog related.

Not only are the number of dog owning households increasing, but dog owners have become increasingly vocal. Jurisdictions around the country have been responsive. In the 100 largest cities the number of dog parks have increased from roughly 420 in 2005 to more than 650 in 2015, a 53% rise. 

CDS Community Development Strategies

Link to the video. PDF of the Presentation.

​CDS President Steve Spillette recently spoke to a group of graduate students in the Bauer Graduate Real Estate program at the University of Houston. Mr. Spillette has several years of experience in retail market analysis and multiple degrees related to real estate and planning--including an MBA from Texas A&M University. In addition, he has performed a variety of market studies and financial pro-forma analyses for both private and public clients related to single family and multifamily residential, office, industrial, hotel, meeting facilities, and golf, as well as significant public sector studies related to major investments and strategic initiatives.

In this presentation he details the process and method required to perform a credible retail market analysis. This type of analysis is often performed for commercial developers who want to gauge how successful their planned development will be.

Click on the image below to watch the video on the CDS Youtube channel.

Link to article.  PDF of article.

David Weekley Homes has expanded into Indianapolis in April at a time when it is unusual for homebuilders to enter new markets. Houston-based David Weekley Homes purchased assets of established homebuilder Estridge Homes for an undisclosed amount. Founder Paul Estridge will run the new market operations for David Weekley Homes, said Chairman David Weekley. The acquisition made sense, said Weekley, because the two companies are similar...

CDS Market Research shows Indianapolis, like Houston, did not have big jumps followed by large dips in housing prices over the past few years. The firm shows 3,720 permits for single-family homes were pulled in 2010 in Indianapolis, up slightly from 3,604 single-family permits pulled in 2009.

​See link for full article

Link to article.  PDF of article.

Coventry Development Corp. plans to create a master-planned community near acreage Exxon Mobil Corp. has acquired for a possible campus.

Springwoods Village is designed as a sustainable development in a forest-like setting on 1,800 acres south of The Woodlands, and the newcomer will rival its neighbor to the north with a similar mix of residential and commercial...

Springwoods Village will directly compete with The Woodlands in the residential and commercial realms. The new community in Houston’s extraterritorial jurisdiction plans a residential mix of single family homes, townhomes and apartments from the onset.
The properties will go up against those in The Woodlands, one of the fastest-selling master-planned communities in the country. 

Charlie Savino, executive vice president with CDS Market Research, says The Woodlands sold 635 homes during the first six months of this year, and closed a total of 1,260 homes in 2009. 

Savino, who was hired by Coventry to do a residential market analysis for Springwoods Village, says The Woodlands is selling homes at a rate that will build-out the community within seven years if no more land is acquired. That bodes well for Springwoods Village, which Savino says could fill 5,000 residences by 2025. “Our forecasts are not outrageous,” Savino says. “We’re confidant that the project will be successful.” Coventry is planning 8.5 million square feet of offices and medical space for development at the same time the residential properties are being built.

For the full article see the link.

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Judging by its tenants, the commercial area of Houston known as the Energy Corridor is the nerve center of the world’s energy capital.

From the late 1960s to today, the stretch of Interstate 10 between Kirkwood and Fry roads has served as a hub of oil and gas commerce. Today, the area is a home to major industry players including BP America Inc., Citgo Petroleum Corp., ConocoPhillips and ExxonMobil Corp., as well as a host of other exploration and production, oil services and peripheral oil and gas companies...

As more companies established their headquarters in the area, it began to coalesce into a real estate submarket with developed commercial and residential areas. That growth is expected to continue after the Energy Corridor shrugs off the latest recession. In a recent study commissioned by the Energy Corridor Management District, Houston-based consulting firm CDS Market Research says the number of employees in the area is expected to increase to more than 97,028 by 2025, with total office space increasing by 36 percent.

See the link for the full article.

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By 2050, the tri-county West Houston/Katy area is expected to add about 260 square miles of residential development and double in population to about 2.2 million.

To help plan for that expected explosion, the West Houston Association on Thursday unveiled its blueprint entailing more than two years of study, ''West Houston Plan 2050: Envisioning Greater West Houston at Mid-Century."

Topics tackled by a panel of experts include market research, residential development, infrastructural management and trends in city growth.

West Houston has seen an increase of 85,000 net jobs — most in business and professional services — in the the last 12 months, said panelist Charles Savino, executive vice president of CDS Market Research.

The economy is largely driven by the oil and gas industry, Savino said, and that is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future with ''the Energy Corridor, Westchase, Memorial Parkway and Interstate 10 all continuing to be major activity centers."

A conservative estimate, he said, is that at least 400,000 housing units and 43 million square feet of office space will be needed during the next half-century.

''To maintain growth we will have to improve the things we're doing — low cost of living, low cost of business hurdles," Savino said. ''Nothing's secure, nothing's certain, (but) attractiveness factors help areas grow."

See the link for the full article.