Michael Prats joined CDS in January 2017 as a Senior Market Analyst where he provides demographic, economic and real estate market research, analysis and evaluation for a variety of private and public sector clients.

Steve Spillette
CDS Community Development Strategies

​Much has been said recently about the relationship between Houston and the price of oil. While most agree that the local economy is more robust than it once was, many are still wondering just how big an impact low oil prices will have. One way to answer this question is to look at how the region was impacted by high oil prices in the recent past. The synopsis: it added over 100,000 six-figure income households—something future growth is not expected to duplicate any time soon. 

Reports of the death of the big American home have been greatly exaggerated. According to data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the size of new American homes has been on the rise since hitting a low point in late 2009. In that year the median average fell to 2,159 square feet (SF), down from the pre-recession high of 2,295 SF in 2007. During that short period of decline, some pointed to the end of the big American home trend—citing the downsizing of baby boomers and the differing preferences of millennials. But since 2009, the median average home size in America has steadily increased. In 2014, the median average was 2,517 SF—a  17% increase since 2009 and a 60% increase since 1974.

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Judging by its tenants, the commercial area of Houston known as the Energy Corridor is the nerve center of the world’s energy capital.

From the late 1960s to today, the stretch of Interstate 10 between Kirkwood and Fry roads has served as a hub of oil and gas commerce. Today, the area is a home to major industry players including BP America Inc., Citgo Petroleum Corp., ConocoPhillips and ExxonMobil Corp., as well as a host of other exploration and production, oil services and peripheral oil and gas companies...

As more companies established their headquarters in the area, it began to coalesce into a real estate submarket with developed commercial and residential areas. That growth is expected to continue after the Energy Corridor shrugs off the latest recession. In a recent study commissioned by the Energy Corridor Management District, Houston-based consulting firm CDS Market Research says the number of employees in the area is expected to increase to more than 97,028 by 2025, with total office space increasing by 36 percent.

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By 2050, the tri-county West Houston/Katy area is expected to add about 260 square miles of residential development and double in population to about 2.2 million.

To help plan for that expected explosion, the West Houston Association on Thursday unveiled its blueprint entailing more than two years of study, ''West Houston Plan 2050: Envisioning Greater West Houston at Mid-Century."

Topics tackled by a panel of experts include market research, residential development, infrastructural management and trends in city growth.

West Houston has seen an increase of 85,000 net jobs — most in business and professional services — in the the last 12 months, said panelist Charles Savino, executive vice president of CDS Market Research.

The economy is largely driven by the oil and gas industry, Savino said, and that is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future with ''the Energy Corridor, Westchase, Memorial Parkway and Interstate 10 all continuing to be major activity centers."

A conservative estimate, he said, is that at least 400,000 housing units and 43 million square feet of office space will be needed during the next half-century.

''To maintain growth we will have to improve the things we're doing — low cost of living, low cost of business hurdles," Savino said. ''Nothing's secure, nothing's certain, (but) attractiveness factors help areas grow."

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