The CDS family is heartbroken that our dear colleague, mentor, and friend Kent Dussair passed away on June 26, after a mercifully brief case of aggressive pulmonary fibrosis.
 
Kent co-founded CDS in 1971 and led the company for over 40 years. He oversaw its emergence as a vital and innovative market research and analysis company for the Houston residential and commercial real estate industry, navigating the economic waves of boom and bust with which longtime Houstonians are so familiar. It says so much about his leadership that CDS survived the crushing economic and real estate downturn of the mid to late 1980s and has kept going to the present day. His stories of Houston’s past business eras were always so fascinating.
 
However, it’s not just the “headline” aspects of Kent’s work that mean the most to me personally and to my CDS colleagues. It was the fantastic example he set with the way he treated our clients, our staff, and fellow Houstonians that I will remember so much. I’ve yet to meet anyone who knew him who has a bad word to say about him – he was the definition of a “great guy.” We’re also big fans of his wife Linda and the rest of his family that they raised so well.
 
Kent embodied the “soul” of CDS and his passing just re-emphasizes how big the shoes are that I and my CDS colleagues continue to try to fill. CDS staff sends our heartfelt condolences to the Dussair family. They can rest assured we will make sure his CDS legacy continues to shine.
 
https://www.dignitymemorial.com/obituaries/katy-tx/robert-dussair-10249146
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CDS recently completed a ResIntel study for the City of San Angelo, Texas.  City officials are responding – see this local news media item.

CDS Community Development Strategies

​In August of 2017 Hurricane Harvey devastated the Houston area with its overwhelming rains. Many are asking what Harvey will mean for Houston’s economy and real estate markets over the long term. CDS has had and will continue to have opportunities to consider these questions in our work. First though, we want to revisit the storm and share our team's stories from Harvey’s onslaught and aftermath.

Steve Spillette

I was at our rural second home outside Brenham, where we rode out the storm. It hit the coast Friday night, then moved up our way by Saturday and especially on Sunday, when there was enough rainfall for the creek that runs through our property to leave its banks. Fortunately, damage in that part of Texas was relatively minimal; by Monday things were already getting back to normal and we didn’t find any significant impacts to that property. I had figured that I would be able to get back to my normal work life in Houston by Monday evening at the latest.

However, the worst-case rainfall scenario actually occurred, and roads were impassable everywhere between Brenham and the west side of Houston. So, I was stuck. I kept track of the local news on television and Internet, and it became quite nerve-wracking once the magnitude of the release from the dams became apparent. Not only had I received word of the disastrous impact on my co-workers and my sister in League City (her home took on several inches of water over several hours), my aged parents were close of the Buffalo Bayou inundation zone. I would not return to Houston until Thursday, and then only via a circuitous route to avoid closed roads and the traffic-choked Grand Parkway through Katy. Fortunately, my parents’ home didn’t suffer any damage, but I had to find food for them as they couldn’t handle standing in the long lines at area grocery stores, and travel in our part of Houston was also very limited because of street closures.

And then there was the long wait to get access to the office, which was surrounded by flood water. As power was out at our building, we couldn’t access the files on our servers, so productivity took a huge hit. We are grateful that executives from our parent firm, iDfour, were willing to wade through some very unsavory water to retrieve computer equipment that would allow us a little more capacity to get work done.

All in all, it was a basically terrible time; the loss of my co-workers’ homes, the lost time for work activity, and the general suffering of Houston and its citizens. I am just grateful that I didn’t suffer any direct damage personally. ​

Kent Dussair

Linda and I returned from vacation early thinking the approaching hurricane might cause Bush airport to close. We returned to torrential rains and quickly became trapped in our home as streets flooded. When the Corps released the reservoirs the house was quickly flooded. We were rescued by boat, moved in with our son and were homeless and without wheels. We sold our home and bought a new one. I missed a couple weeks of work in the process.

​Had I not been in the real estate consulting business with a better than average knowledge of historical and current development patterns we probably would not have purchased flood insurance.  We had lived in our home for 42-years without a drop of flooding inside the home.  The idea that the reservoirs could fill up and the Corp of Engineers might have to release massive amounts of water into nearby neighborhoods had never been a topic of discussion.  Almost no one in our neighbor had opted for flood insurance because, based on experience it was an unneeded cost.  However, I was well aware there is not a house in the region that is immune from raising water given the amount of rainfall we get. 
 
Although losing a home, automobiles, and furnishings overnight was a traumatic happening, the flood insurance money allowed us to sell the home in an “as is” condition and quickly buy a new home.  One of the first things we did after moving to our new home was to purchase flood insurance. I strongly suggest that every homeowner in the Houston area do the same.

​Brenda Crenshaw
 
Harvey did not impact our home or my family, thank God. It did give several sleepless nights worrying about my daughter and her husband and our 2 month old grandson as she stayed in contact telling me how high the water was rising on her street. When they moved everything upstairs that they could, I got really worried. My husband and I tried to drive to them but the water surrounding their neighborhood was too high. Thankfully, the water finally resided and only got up to their garage door. Unfortunately two homes next to them were flooded.
 
As far as work, flood waters surrounded the building for weeks making it impassable. We were faced with no electricity for another week. The buildings elevators remained inoperable for about a month. Needless to say, four flights of stairs or 88 steps became a chore!

Ty Jacobsen
 
Harvey was, unfortunately, quite a difficult experience for me. I was living in an apartment complex right along Buffalo Bayou, quite close to the CDS offices on Dairy Ashford. I woke up on the morning of Sunday, August 27th to find the parking lot of the complex completely flooded, at least ankle-deep across its entirety. Fearing a flooded car, I drove through the high water and left it on the 2nd floor of the parking garage at the CDS offices. The water in the parking lot went down that afternoon, giving hope that the worst was over, only to rise back up even higher as torrential rains Sunday evening and through the night prompted increasing releases from the Addicks and Barker reservoirs. Water continued to rise on Monday, with a strong current from the nearby bayou making wading or floating to higher ground a dangerous proposition. I spent much of the day moving as many of my belongings as I could off of the ground. Power went out on Monday evening and, with floodwaters still about a foot short of inundating my first floor unit, I spent that night at a neighbor’s apartment on the second floor. The Coast Guard floated in on Tuesday afternoon and recommended that everyone evacuate. It took two trips by motor boat to reach unflooded ground.

It was not until the second Saturday in September that the water receded enough for my apartment (or the CDS offices) to be accessible. I spent nearly two weeks not knowing how high the water had gotten in my unit or how much damage was done. Ultimately, the floodwaters only came up about 8-10 inches inside my apartment, much less than many of the homes in the area. Having sat inaccessible for nearly two weeks, though, mold had taken hold several feet up the walls and claimed a good bit of my furniture. My car, though safe from the flooding on the second floor of the office parking garage, had retained some water from its soggy trip to the garage and, having sat for two weeks without care, was also covered in mold. My apartment complex was condemned and my lease terminated. I stayed with family in Katy for three months before moving to a new apartment in December.

Mike Prats

Being a native New Orleanian, I believe I may be naturally more in tune with hurricane events than the average person. On Wednesday August 23, 2017 before the storm I began to naturally (consciously and unconsciously) prepare myself mentally, physically and emotionally for the potential inundation of the entire city and lose of everything myself and everyone else had. I mean it had happened to myself and my city once before so like I said, it was just natural that I was consciously and unconsciously preparing for what I had already seen and experienced once before. I sent a link to a few co workers from pivotal weather dot com citing that some parts around Houston could have a total accumulation of up to 45 inches.

By Friday August 25, 2017 I had properly prepped and hunkered down for the worst at my apartment located on Dairy Ashford and Briar Patch. That day the office ordered food for everyone and as we all ate I mentioned out loud that the European Model was forecasting up to 45 inches of total precipitation accumulated from now through 8/31/17. They all laughed and made fun of the notion of anything “European” and there was a near 100% consensus in the office that 45 inches of rain over the span of that many days was impossible. I didn’t sleep much that Friday, Saturday and Sunday nights. I stayed up all nights watching the news, drinking beer (I had bought a 32 pack of Modelo bottles from Costco, like I said I am basically a professional hurricane victim) and making the 10 minute walk north on Dairy Ashford in ankle deep water.
 
Very early Monday morning the water on my walk to the bayou became knee deep and was getting darker (all professional flood/hurricane victims know when its clear, its just rain water, when its brown, its probably not a good thing). Several neighborhoods and apartment complexes around us began taking on water and began evacuations through the day Monday and into Tuesday and Wednesday. The street in front of my apartment became a staging area and boat launch for official and un-official boat rescue operations. 

​I am grateful that myself and my family did not experience any loss whatsoever. The whole area finally lost electricity on Thursday and I had to track down a police officer to figure out how to get to my mother’s house in Atascocita. The police told me the only way out is east on Westheimer to 610 and then 610 to 59. It took about 5 hours to drive from the apartment to Atascocita (about a 45 mile drive). I stayed in Atascocita for two weeks until electricity to our office building and apartment complex on Dairy Ashford was finally restored and returned home Saturday evening September 16, 2017.

​Scott Reineking
 
I live in Oakhurst the area of Kingwood on the east side of Highway 59. We moved into the house about a year before Harvey and the area, at least for us, was untested for a flood. We were lucky and had no water problems at all and didn’t even lose power, even being only 1.5 miles from the San Jacinto River. We were isolated though (could only go north on Highway 59) and were not even able to check on our business which is close to Lake Houston. Fortunately that was fine as well, just lost two weeks of business revenue. I was finally able to log into the CDS computers after about two weeks and get some work completed.

​Urban Equilibrium is an ideal status that many smaller cities pursue but rarely achieve. Picture a city where the number of residents and businesses are equally balanced. Imagine a housing stock where the type and price range of houses accommodates all segments of the community. Reaching Urban Equilibrium means all existing residential, commercial, and industrial development are utilized without pockets of vacancy or blight. Follow the six steps outlined in this article to help your City get on the path towards Urban Equilibrium. 

In a perfect world such as described, nothing would be missing, no need unmet and no market sectors are over or under supplied. In this ideal environment, residents would be content, employers would experience low turnover, and prospective businesses and industries will be attracted to the city.
 
Of course, actual Urban Equilibrium can only be realized in our imaginations. But the vision of a balanced real estate environment can be useful as a goal. Attainment may always be out of reach, but there can be benefits in the pursuit. Proactively setting and pursuing development goals--no matter how unrealistic--is preferable to having local government policies that are reactionary and outdated.
 
The following six steps can help your city reach Urban Equilibrium.
 
1. Step one, begin by developing a database that describes the demographic, social, and employment make-up of the city. What are your housing needs, shopping needs for retail goods and services, office and industrial needs for the business community? Understanding the economic background and capability of the resident population is critical in determining the amount and type of development that is needed to satisfy your existing population.
 
2. Step two, identify the catalysts, trends, and other factors that influence how the database will change over time. Which major employers are growing and adding jobs? What events and local attractions are bringing in visitors? Are target industries actually attracted to your community? What percent of local employees commute from other communities? Are college graduates returning or do they go elsewhere to find employment? How will these and other factors impact the database defined in step one?

3. Step three, compile a real estate inventory that includes both descriptive data such as total housing stock, vacancy rates, and price points, as well as qualitative observations related to desirability, style, and location. This step may require some foot work and visits to housing and apartment developments, retail shopping centers, and office buildings. Some of this information will require personal interviews with knowledgeable individuals and some will come from reporting services and secondary sources. The key is to look beyond the numbers. Think of yourself as an investigative journalist out to uncover the real story behind why your community is the way it is.
 
4. The fourth step is the most critical: define the of deficiencies and gaps in the development supply and demand. Where are the holes and the mismatches? Putting all the findings together may not be simple. What does it mean when we find anomalies such as 100 percent occupancies, increasing vacancies, or long-standing inventories in certain price ranges or locations? What is the back story behind each of these situations? There is usually more than meets the eye. The idea is not only to determine where there are needs but why. And are the motivating circumstances likely to be permanent or just unusual aberrations that will abate with time?
 
5. Step five involves setting goals and priorities. Be forward looking in determining the best methods for filling the gaps and preparing for a more balanced future. Market forces will provide clear signals if stakeholders are given a means to communicate. Find ways to include all socioeconomic sectors in the visioning process. The challenge will be to differentiate between real community needs and perceived inconveniences. Once priorities have been established, a pragmatic working plan with a clear outline of action is essential. At this point its better to be realistic than idealistic. Achieving small but reachable goals over ten years is better than envisioning grand goals over 40 years.
 
6. Step six is also the next several steps, to be taken periodically. Revisit the programs each year, revise the plan as necessary, and benchmark the progress. Without constant monitoring, imbalances will quickly return. The path is long-term and never-ending as it leads toward the ideal city that can be envisioned but never quite reached. The effort is worthwhile because even small amounts of progress equate to recognizable accomplishments that contribute to a healthy and resilient community. 

​About the Author: Kent Dussair founded CDS in 1971 for the purpose of providing professional market and economic research and consulting services. With over 50 years of professional experience, Kent continues to help CDS implement and evaluate effective qualitative research.

​Every year CDS produces a land use and demographic profile for The Energy Corridor District—a business district on Houston’s west side. Each edition includes a thorough land use and demographic profile as well as projections for the future. For the 2017 edition CDS provided multiple future projections, accounting for a new land use trend that is gaining popularity in Houston and other parts of the country: place-oriented and mixed-use development.  

During the oil slump, demand for large home sites fell as luxury home sales slowed. However, as oil prices have climbed back above $50 a barrel, demand for large home lots is expected to grow, said Steve Spillette, president of Community Development Strategies.

G​rowth and development in Conroe, Montgomery and Willis were the focal points of the inaugural Lake Conroe Summit 2017, which was hosted by the Montgomery Area Chamber of Commerce March 31. ...Steve Spillette, CDS Community Development Strategies President, served as the keynote speaker and presented the findings from his study, which forecasts the growth of the Lake Conroe area out to the year 2045.

Is your downtown in need of revitalizing? Unpredictable economic conditions and changing demographic trends create challenges for aging urban centers. CDS can conduct a market analysis to develop a realistic vision of how to generate new investment within your downtown. Our plans are comprehensive, actionable, supportable and measurable.

You might have seen this graphic passing around the internet this week. Are the strawberries below red or gray? It turns out they're actually gray. Read this article to find out why, and also for some insight into one big illusion that is often perpetuated in economic development circles--that job creation is always about the numbers. Companies often come into a community wanting incentives and promising jobs. But are the jobs they're promising worth the incentive?

​Kent Dussair
CDS Community Development Strategies

​For seniors who are thinking about downsizing or retirement, there’s another option out there that’s growing in popularity: senior cohousing. This communal housing model is particularly well-suited for seniors because it offers a support system and social environment not normally available in conventional retirement communities. By design, cohousing residents live in a close-knit arrangement that encourages neighbors to know and help each other. The objective is to create and maintain a small community of seniors who share skills, interests, and a vision of mutual support and friendship—while still preserving and respecting individual privacy. 

Michael Prats joined CDS in January 2017 as a Senior Market Analyst where he provides demographic, economic and real estate market research, analysis and evaluation for a variety of private and public sector clients.

CDS was recently hired to perform a demographic study in the Oklahoma City area. While completing this study, we were somewhat surprised by the prevalence of large-lot residential subdivisions of relatively recent vintage. This article examines the possible reasons why large acreage residential developments are more common in the Oklahoma City area. ​

​What is active adult housing? From my “seasoned” perspective, let me explain it to all you whippersnappers out there. There comes a time when we reluctantly stumble into the never-never land known as old age, and our world begins to change. We can’t run and jump like we used to, and sometimes just making it from the chair to the refrigerator seems like an Olympic event. The good news is, homebuilders have us in mind. 

To a hammer, everything is a nail. Well at CDS, you're not a nail, and we're not a hammer. Instead, we like to think of ourselves as a multitool. We have expertise and experience in a wide range of services. When our clients hire us for a project, we provide customized research and in-depth analysis. 

CDS is brining this message to our clients. Below is a picture of our booth at the recent ​ICSC conference (International Council of Shopping Centers). If you see us and this booth at future conferences, stop by and say hello. We would be happy to answer any questions you have and also get you your very own CDS pocket knife. 

​Driving around the vast Houston region, you will see an abundance of green and white signs noting that you are now “Entering Houston City Limit”, or crossing the “Fort Bend County Line”. These helpful markers make the otherwise invisible borders of these important jurisdictions apparent to us without the aid of a map. Less apparent are the boundaries of a type of jurisdiction that is, in many cases, equally as important as cities and counties, the school district.

Paul Takahashi 
Houston Business Journal

Steve Spillette, president of CDS, was recently interviewed by the Houston Business Journal. His interview is as follows: 

Developers are lowering prices on large home lots as luxury home sales have slowed during the oil slump, according to a new report. Community Development Strategies, a Houston-based real estate research firm, recently released its bi-annual lot price survey, which polled developers in 100 communities across the Houston metro region about the cost of their home sites. Most major developers, except for The Howard Hughes Corp. (NYSE: HHC), participated in the survey, which was conducted in July and announced in late September.

CDS Community Development Strategies

​Last night at St. Arnold's Brewery near Downtown Houston, CDS released the latest edition of the Lot Price Survey. The event was well attended by representatives from the area's residential development industry. Beer and BBQ were served, and a presentation was given summarizing the latest trends and findings from the survey. Lennar's Cindy Hinson also presented on the topic of multi-generational housing.

Kent Dussair
CDS Community Development Strategies

The real estate market moves in cycles. When times are good, new projects are easy to justify—whether the land use is residential, commercial, or something else. But when the economic times are uncertain, the best use of a property is not always clear. In the Houston area, where the local economy has been adversely affected by low oil prices, land owners and developers are still moving forward… but cautiously. Projects currently underway are being closely scrutinized while future planned developments are being re-evaluated. Determining the highest and best use for an undeveloped (or under-developed) property is always important, but in a challenging local real estate market, it is absolutely essential.